Water Crux MageTier 2
at Ascent Niagara Falls
decks
2
(0.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
20
10-9-1
overall winrate
52.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.0%
avg ELO +0.8 per match
expected value
51.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1387
· median 1387
· range 1212–1561
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
937
Q1 1212
Q3 1415
1750
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 14.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.5% | +18.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +3.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.4% | -12.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -3.5 |
| Water Genbu | 4.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.3% | -14.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 4.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.8 |
| Fire Suited | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.6% | -21.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.5 |
| Wind Allies | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -5.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.7% | +6.4 |
| Water Fractal | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.9 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -17.9 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Diana | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
